Stock Trades Update and Market Thoughts (July 07, 2015)

japan10

There’s an old saying — “Sell in May and go away…” As a Buy and Hold investor, I’m not one to really follow that type of advice, but I ended up going down that route (essentially) this year…

It was never by design, but as I alluded to in previous posts, my rationale for selling out of most of my stock positions was to build up a more robust emergency fund in the event of a major market pullback (or crash).

Currently, there’s a lot of turmoil in the air this summer, with Greece and its potential Grexit out of the Eurozone getting the most mainstream media play. But there’s more to it than that… You’ve also got Puerto Rico showing signs of insolvency and China experiencing a massive stock correction, with the Shanghai Composite Index selling off over 30% since peaking on June 12

From CNN Money:

According to Bespoke Investment Group, China’s stock markets have now lost $3.25 trillion. To put that in perspective, that’s more than the size of France’s entire stock market and about 60% of Japan’s market.

Yikes! That’s some seriously scary stuff right there… So far, it’s already been one EVENTFUL summer… to say the least…

Latest Trades

The following provides an updated table with all of my most recent trades. Since the last update, I’ve gone ahead and liquidated my holdings in Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD) and Coca-Cola (KO).

I sold TD for a small profit of $156.13.

I sold KO for a loss of $142.55. In total, I collected $150.20 in dividends (2 payouts) and call options. Essentially, you could say I broke even on this position.

Here is the full summary:

Stock_Trades_06_22_15

Year-to-date (YTD) I’ve collected $2,746.83 in trading income.

Looking Ahead

Originally, my dividend growth trading strategy was to keep an allocation of about $15,000 in the portfolio, spread out across 3 different companies. I wanted to keep trading periodically to collect some additional income.

Well, with the recent market downturn, it looks like my plan has been put on hiatus… Currently, I own positions in the following stocks:

  • Union Pacific (UNP); 50 shares purchased at $103.40/share
  • Norfolk Southern (NSC); 52 shares purchased at $96.60/share
  • Walmart (WMT); 65 shares purchased at $76.04/share

I’m down and in the RED pretty substantially on all three stocks. So, as a part of my backup plan (by default), I will have to resort to being a traditional dividend growth investor (which I’m perfectly comfortable with)… Quite simply, because I probably won’t be able to exit out favorably any time soon, I will have to just kick back and collect dividend checks…

With my Alibaba (BABA) holding, I’m down over $7,000, and this stock just keeps on bleeding (down another 4% at $76.95/share as of this morning).

It looks like I will have to be even more patient with that stock…

Market Thoughts

The markets have mostly traded sideways this year, but it looks like the market pullback that most dividend growth investors have been longing for has finally arrived.

I’m not sure if we’ve yet reached “back the truck up” territory, but many stocks are looking ripe for the picking.

Global uncertainty tends to have that kind of impact…

I don’t have a crystal ball so there’s no way for me (or anyone else) to know what lies ahead. And although I feel like the market valuations certainly look far more attractive now than when I sold out of my positions (mostly in May), I’m going to remain a little more patient and wait to see how everything unfolds…

In other words, I still don’t feel an immediate urge to jump back into the markets.

With that said, I’m still keeping a watchful eye on the stock market, as I do see a lot of developing “bargains”. Oil and energy are down big; the Vanguard Energy ETF (VDE) has shed over 28% in the last year. The best-of-breed integrated majors like Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) are looking increasingly more attractive by the day (with dividend yields now sitting at 4.5% and 3.5%, respectively).

Oil and energy may still have ways to fall, but these prices look like a complete steal relative to where they were just one short year ago. Last summer, I vividly remember when CVX was trading at over $130/share and analysts were clamoring that it was a SCREAMING BUY! So, if you were contemplating a purchase back then… Looks like you’ve got a wonderful opportunity to add now and perhaps even further into the near future!

In addition, the mining industry has got to be the most hated sector of all right now. Junior mining stocks like Market Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (GDXJ) are down over 46% from year-to-year. It is very interesting to observe that in spite of all the global unrest that exists, gold and silver and other precious metals are stuck in a persistent downtrend. When the SHCOMP is down 30% in less than one full month and Greece banks are going on “holiday” (I can’t believe they are actually calling bank shut downs that!), should the price of gold and silver really be setting new 52 week lows?

The price of silver is down another 5% this morning… WOW!

You know what they say about buying low and selling high… Right now, there sure looks to be very limited remaining downside left in precious metals, with potentially limitless upside potential. Precious metals reached an apex back in 2012, and have been in bear territory ever since.

Perhaps, there’s one last blow-off bottom in store before the start of another secular bull run?

 

In any case, things are starting to get interesting in the markets!

 

Happy Investing!

 

What do you think? Are you loving (or hating) the latest market pullbacks? Buyer, seller, or standing on the sidelines? What stocks are you watching carefully?

Print Friendly, PDF & Email
Sharing is Caring:

17
Leave a Reply

avatar
9 Comment authors
Sitting on the Sidelines (The Art of Patience)TawcanDividend Growth InvestorRetire29FI Fighter Recent comment authors
  Subscribe  
newest oldest most voted
Notify of
Income Surfer
Guest

Mr Market is a fickle one, isn’t he Jay? I added to my position in BHP Biliton (BBL) today at $37.03, and have a buy at $91 on Union Pacific (UNP)……but generally I’m keeping my powder dry. Prices are about 10% from my price target on several of the companies I want to buy…..Fastenal, Travelers, Nestle, Unilever, etc

Days like today make me very glad that I have been so patient and held onto so much cash. Now if only this is deep enough that I can “back up the truck” as you said.
-Bryan

Financial Samurai
Guest

I wonder what happens to all the dividend investors and dividend investor bloggers if markets get crushed further?

Dividend Growth Investor
Guest

Financial Samurai,

Dividend investors and dividend bloggers did just fine during the last recession.

In fact, I would say that the performance during the next decade of a dividend ETF such as VIG, SCHD or SDY will beat the results of the offerings of those Sliced Investing hedge funds you have been touting so much on your site.

Roadmap2Retire
Guest

Good positions you own there, FI. I just added a bit more to my pipeline (IPL) stock. Will be looking to add more to my portfolio as the market keeps trending down.

Thanks for sharing
R2R

No Nonsense Landlord
Guest

Compare any of your stocks to the S&P. Then compare the portfolio results. Then, subtract any taxes and commissions.

I would guess the S&P outshine all.

Sell Alibaba and buy FXI. Take the tax loss harvest and you still have China. Or just go with a USD stock. China is headed lower yet.

george puck
Guest
george puck

S&P hasnt done much this year. I am well ahead of it in my largest accounts.

I dont know that I would touch FXI. Too much going on over there imo to be invested. $41.96 is the price I see quoted, will be interesting to check back.

If you are looking for dividends, and dont mind the paperwork of a LLC, might look at ETP in a non retirement fund. I mean its sitting at a 7.6% dividend that I think is safe. Especially if you have a long time horizon.

Retire29
Guest

Most dividend stocks, because they’re seen as income-producing tools, trade inversely to interest rate expectations. This is why my Dividend growth portfolio is down about 4.5% since February, while my regular portfolio is still up a few percent.

The amount of DGI stocks that are compelling is immensely long. The REIT space (O, STAG, HCP, OHI, WPC) Energy (ATW, NOV, XOM, so many others) have tons of very attractive opportunities. BBL is one that most DGI players love, and its trading for an absurd price.

Only time will tell how prescient these buy-at-the-bottom decisions are.

Eric

Tawcan
Guest

China and Greece are making life interesting aren’t they? I think we’ll continue seeing volatility which hopefully would introduce more buying opportunities for long term investors. For now I’ll continue executing our investment strategy.

trackback

[…] been slowly exiting out of the markets since May when I sold out of most of my individual stock holdings. Sudden stops and turns always seem abrupt, so I am not surprised in the least bit that my shifting […]

Close Menu