Last week, I wrote a post titled — The Market Always Surprises… ALWAYS!
Well, for the precious metal stocks, today was indeed a day full of SURPRISES! Wow, what a beatdown… A blood bath… Total massacre. Gold and silver mining stocks were pummeled left, right, and center… And once they were already down and out, the precious metals were kicked in the gut a few extra times for good measure.
If my recollection is correct, today’s smackdown was the worst trading session for gold and silver all year!
Gold was down over -3%, while silver performed even worse, collapsing a ridiculous -5%.
And here I thought the European banks were in trouble…
From The Guardian.
ING’s plans to shed 7,000 jobs and invest in its digital platforms to make annual savings of €900m by 2021 has drawn swift criticism of the Netherlands’ largest financial services company from unions.
The layoffs represent slightly less than 12% of ING’s 52,000 workforce, because nearly 1,000 are expected to come at suppliers rather than at the bank itself.
But they are the heaviest since 2009, when ING was forced to restructure and spin off its insurance activities after receiving a state bailout during the financial crisis.
Unions were highly critical. “I don’t think this was the intention of the [government] when it kept ING afloat with bailout money,” Ike Wiersinga of the Dutch union CNV said.
In Belgium, where the number of jobs lost will be highest, labour leader Herman Vanderhaegen called the decision a “horror show” and said workers would strike on Friday 7 October.
And of course, let’s not forget about Deutsche Bank!
On Monday, there was a spike in the price of insuring against a default in Deutsche Bank’s senior debt, which could only happen if it went bankrupt. More importantly, it’s now more expensive to buy this insurance for one year into the future than for five years, figures from FactSet show, measured by derivatives called credit-default swaps.
Meanwhile, the IMF was busy cutting growth forecasts this morning…
New weakness in North America, coming on top of concerns about China and Europe, is adding to a sense of “disquiet” about the global economic outlook, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday.
In its latest report on the global economic outlook, the IMF’s trimmed its forecast for U.S. growth this year by 0.6% and next year by 0.3%, and noted that the Federal Reserve has so far judged a second interest rate increase as too risky.
So, in the face of all this noise, you would expect the price of “safe haven” investments, such as gold and silver to sell off… right?
Does that make sense to you?
Of course… not.
Conveniently enough, today’s “plunge into the abyss” just so happened to coincide during a week in which China is on holiday, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange is closed for business.
The above link is a cool site that compares the “arbitrage” between the paper market (West) vs. the physical market (East)…
Silver has now entered into a state of “Caution” due to a $1.85/oz delta between the two markets.
Anyway, moving back over to the mining stocks…
A most common question I get asked is, “Now a good time to buy?”
Obviously, I have no crystal ball, because if I did… I would have sold out of all my shares yesterday, ahead of today’s beatdown…
But my belief has always been this — As a buyer, it’s much more preferable to be loading up on days when the merchandise is being sold off at firesale prices… You get far better discounts when you’re purchasing into fear as opposed to greed.
Case in point… My own portfolio!
As of market closing on October 4, 2016.
A sea of red… I’m down about -$80,000 this week alone… Yikes!
Do I have Deutsche Bank to “thank” for this “behind-the-scenes mass liquidation” event?
There’s a fire raging and the price of fire insurance just became a whole lot more affordable!
Now I’m just being a conspiracy nut… Maybe (maybe not)…
Germany’s biggest bank has been accused of breaking the terms of bond sales by financial experts.
The trouble-hit bank is reportedly currently contemplating a merger with Germany’s other mega-bank, Commerzbank.
Clients who have invested in the exchange-traded commodity “Xetra-Gold” have said they are having problems with the bank, according to German analytic website Godmode-Trader.
Xetra-Gold is a bond on the Deutsche Börse commodities market, and Deutsche Bank is a designated sponsor.
When purchasing the commodity in the virtual sphere, customers are told for every scrap of the precious metal they buy, the same amount of physical gold exists.
On the website, Xetra-Gold says its clients have the right for physical delivery of the gold when they please.
But customers have said they have asked for it – and have been denied by Deutsche Bank.
Deutsche Bank AG has reached settlements in lawsuits over allegations it manipulated gold and silver prices, lawyers for traders of the commodities said in court filings.
Attorneys for futures contract traders in two private lawsuits said in letters filed Wednesday and Thursday in Manhattan federal court that the bank has executed term sheets and is negotiating final details for the accords.
The German financial firm also agreed to help the plaintiffs pursue similar claims against other banks as part of the settlements, according to the letters. Vincent Briganti and Robert Eisler, attorneys for traders in the silver-fixing lawsuit, said Deutsche Bank will turn over instant messages and other communications to help further their case. Financial terms of the settlements weren’t disclosed.
“In addition to valuable monetary consideration to be paid into a settlement fund, the term sheet also provides for other valuable consideration such as provisions requiring Deutsche Bank’s cooperation in pursuing claims against the remaining defendants,” attorneys Daniel Brockett and Merrill Davidoff said in their letter Thursday in the gold-fixing lawsuit.
Silver and gold futures traders sued groups of banks in 2014 alleging they rigged prices for the precious metals and their derivatives. Silver traders brought claims against Deutsche Bank, HSBC Holdings Plc, Bank of Nova Scotia and UBS AG. Gold traders additionally sued Barclays Plc and Societe Generale SA.
The traders alleged the banks abused their positions of controlling daily silver and gold fixes to reap illegitimate profits from trading and hurting other investors in those markets who use the benchmark in billions of dollars of transactions, according to versions of the complaints filed in 2015. Of those banks, only Deutsche Bank has reached a settlement.
The paper game is a most heinous one…
Quite frankly, I don’t think I’ve seen anything quite this brutal since January 19…
So, there you go…
Could things get worse? Absolutely they could…
But if you’ve been on the sidelines waiting for a good opportunity to strike, well, all I can say is that today’s prices (both in the physical bullion and mining stocks) present a far more attractive buying opportunity than what we’ve seen in a long while…
With gold and silver mining stocks, I always like to say that my opinion on them is ever-changing, because the price movements are so fluid and dynamic… Last month, I mentioned that my preference was starting to shift towards early-stage exploration plays because I felt that the developers, mid-tiers, seniors, royalty and streaming companies, etc. were all priced at fair/over value…
Right now, EVERYTHING is cheap(er) again! So yes, for me, all the options are back on the table…
No, I didn’t make any moves today, but I’m watching the sector attentively and have my shopping list ready!
I don’t quite feel like a kid in the candy store (January 19) yet, but things sure are getting interesting again, that’s for sure…