The Wacky World of Cryptos – ICO Thoughts (Updated)

by FI Fighter on February 7, 2018

in Crypto Updates, Thoughts

In the wacky world of cryptocurrencies, as soon as I hit the ‘publish’ button on any article, I can pretty much rest assured knowing that whatever thoughts that I have at that moment will be relegated to obsolete immediately after.

That’s just the way the game goes in Cryptoverse… We are operating in a sector that moves at the speed of light and is driven by sentiment much more than anything else…

So, we can easily have a cataclysmic sell-off event of epic proportions on one day, immediately followed up with the following…

Yeah, talk about a batshit crazy rollercoaster ride…

With that said, it should come as no surprise to readers that I already feel the need to amend my thoughts that I shared with everyone in the latest newsletter

So, here we go…

I think the ICO game is still very much worth learning and following closely… Because you just never know! If a “once in a lifetime” opportunity arises (e.g. Icon; ICX or Populous; PPT), it will certainly make all the hard work/research worthwhile as anyone who gets into such ICOs will be fast-tracking their progress to early FI in a heartbeat…

I mean, the numbers speak for themselves!

As 2017 concluded, ICX was up 51.37x from its ICO price…

PPT was up an astounding 134.33x!

Life changing gains!!!

And I do know of people in my own personal circle who were savvy enough to get into those ICOs… and right now they are laughing their way to the bank… Yes, even despite the most recent blood bath in cryptos…

Now, let us address the most recent blood bath in cryptos…

Yes, it’s very obvious now (with the benefit of hindsight) that Bitcoin (BTC) and various other cryptos were in a massive bubble and residing in extremely overbought territory… Now that BTC has fallen from $19,000/coin to just over $7,000/coin, it’s safe to say that “euphoria” phase has come and gone…

Could things get a lot worse from here?

Absolutely!

But despite the short-term volatility and nasty downtrend, in the BIG PICTURE, I still believe cryptos and blockchain are here to stay for good…

Right now, I realize that cryptos (on the whole) are struggling mightily, but show me another asset class that can offer such ridiculous and outsized upside potential?!?!

Obviously, I’m not suggesting it’s easy (or likely) to happen again, but on the path to early FI, I just don’t understand how it does anyone any harm to be open-minded to new ideas?

As I spoke about in the newsletter, it’s not like anyone is forcing you to speculate in these super risky ventures…

I most certainly am NOT!

And you don’t have to go “all in”, or throw the kitchen sink at cryptos/ICOs…

 

Life isn’t binary and neither is investing/speculating!

 

All I’m saying is that you will do yourself a lot of good on the path to early FI (and life in general) if you keep your mind open to new ideas…

 

It’s all about learning!

 

And then, someday, hopefully you get lucky…

 

Luck is when opportunity meets preparation…

 

So many people whine and complain everyday about NOT being able to participate in private placements (e.g. for mining stocks) because they don’t meet the accredited investor requirement, have an opportunity with cryptos, yet can’t be bothered to spend even 5 minutes researching the space!

Go figure…

Further, with ICOs, a lot of times the minimum contributions only require 0.1 ETH (not much capital at all!)…

 

ICOs are a wonderful opportunity for the “retail folks” to get in on the action early!

 

With that said, here are my revised thoughts:

In a prolonged bear market for cryptos, succeeding with ICOs is going to be extremely tough and tricky… If investors/speculators are too scared, I think it’s going to be most difficult for many of these companies to raise capital… and many ICOs won’t close fully subscribed… Further, if “dumb money” (newbie retail investors) don’t continue to come flooding in, it will be challenging flipping many of these tokens post-ICO for 2-10x gains, or whatever ridiculous numbers ICO investors were making during the “good times”…

But even in January (when the crypto bull market was still very much intact), ICOs were already becoming less lucrative b/c with so much retail interest, many tokens were heavily oversubscribed, so it was common for some of the more popular tokens to severely limit the allocation for each participating individual… I mean, look at Bee Token (BEE) which capped each investor to contributions of up to 0.1 ETH on Day 1 (the cap was only raised on Day 2 for any unsold tokens)…

And as mentioned in the newsletter, there are just so many SCAMS these days! We’ve got to be so careful out there!!

With that said, although I’m still watching ICOs very closely, I think that presales are a preferred way to go (if you can get in)… With presales, you’re typically able to get in with better terms (lower price to ICO and sometimes bonus tokens, to boot), and most importantly of all — You don’t have to deal with crowds (e.g. gas wars) and you can get a much larger lion’s share allocation…

Above and beyond presales and ICOs, in a prolonged bear market in cryptos, I also strongly feel that if some of the top platform coins (ETH, NEO, ICX, etc.) continue to sell-off and exhibit extreme weakness, they will priced at such attractive levels that my own preference would be to gravitate towards just buying and HODLing the “best stuff” out there, and do away entirely with presales and ICOs…

I mean, let’s be real here — If Ethereum (ETH) is trading at $1,400/coin, of course, there is a ton of appeal with presales and ICOs… But what if ETH falls to $300/coin? Why would investors/speculators continue taking on such extreme risks with presales/ICOs, when they can just simply buy and HODL ETH!?!

The path of least resistance, as far as I’m concerned, is going with the “best of the best” coins at attractive prices…

ICOs are most attractive (and potent) in a raging bull market… In a neutral/bear market? Not so much…

But cryptos are an ever-evolving space, so that’s why my thoughts are so dynamic and ever-changing…

 

But who knows what tomorrow will bring?

For all we know, sentiment might return in full force to cryptos later this year…

And that’s why I decided it was worth my time and effort to devote an entire newsletter to covering cryptos and ICOs now… I even went through how to setup a MyEtherWallet and Neo Tracker/NEON wallet step-by-step, as boring as those sections were to put together (just being honest guys)…

Anyway, so far I’ve gotten some very encouraging feedback and it feels awesome to know that there are so many readers of this blog who are so excited and passionate about early FI and open to new investing/speculating opportunities!

Seriously, it really makes my day to connect with other like-minded individuals who are so determined to reach their goals and wildest dreams!

And for me, that’s what it’s all about!

As I covered in a recent post, I’ve climbed up the early FI mountain twice now, so my own journey is getting a little tired and long in the tooth…

It’s not so much about me anymore…

It’s about YOU!

No, I’m not saying I have all the answers and that my ideas will pan out… but I feel like the point of this blog is to try and keep you all informed with the latest: ideas, trends, opportunities, etc…

 

There’s ALWAYS another train arriving at the station!

 

Early FI is a most wonderful and worthwhile goal to strive for in life.

 

It’s not easy, but I’m adamant in my belief that the ones who get there are the folks who are most open-minded to learning and improving.

 

Fight On!

{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }

1 alNo Gravatar February 7, 2018 at 9:34 am

“ Yes, it’s very obvious now (with the benefit of hindsight) that Bitcoin (BTC) and various other cryptos were in a massive bubble and residing in extremely overbought territory… Now that BTC has fallen from $19,000/coin to just over $7,000/coin, it’s safe to say that “euphoria” phase has come and gone…
Anyway, so far I’ve gotten some very encouraging feedback and it feels awesome to know that there are so many readers of this blog who are so excited and passionate about early FI and open to new investing/speculating opportunities!
Seriously, it really makes my day to connect with other like-minded individuals who are so determined to reach their goals and wildest dreams! “

For what’s worth, I have been watching this ICO affair from afar since 2016. Never invested a dime yet in those decentralized computer programs (that’s what they really are) that any kid can program and let loose.

I now know there is a cycle in this ICO sector too. Things peak in December, crash in Jan-March, bottom out in May-June, start to climb a wall of worries from July till November, and rinse + repeat …

So since you write a blog about crypto’s, you might aswell (or as well) start anal-ising this ICO cycles history, to glean some TA expertise on those particulars, since they ICO’s also rhyme with the seasons.

Buy Low Sell High, means going in at the right time, and getting out at the opportune time, this is paramount if you want to gloat all the way to the bank… (your speciality 🙂 )

Reply

2 theFIREstarterNo Gravatar February 12, 2018 at 4:31 pm

Hi Jay,

Couldn’t agree more with pretty much all of what you say here!

I got quite a few negative comments about Cryptos having posted a few times on the subject on my blog. Yes… the timing was bang wrong to “get involved” at the peak (not that I did, but not far off it) and lessons have been learnt very quickly and like you I think being open minded and researching new things that could have potential amazing gains is surely worth my time.

The people knocking it have their “investing manifesto” and stick to it like some kind of religion, cryptos don’t fit that so they say it’s just gambling or whatever. Well last time I checked Index funds dropped 50% in 2008, and many people call the stock market full stop outright gambling, and you know what they might be right!?
I don’t really get that mindset to just dismiss things because it doesn’t fit your investment ideology (In fact why even have an investing ideology in the first place!?! That just seems weird!) or before you’ve even taken the time to understand that sector. Fair enough, if you haven’t got time to look into it or can’t be bothered that’s fine and I have no problem with that, but then why go around talking cr@p about it when you don’t really know what you are talking about.

Anyway… Glad that you’ve had a more positive response that I did… haha 🙂

And looking forward to reading any further thoughts you have on the subject!

Oh and as an aside, absolutely gutted I missed out on the buying opportunities of the recent big crash!!! I was on holiday and had very very bad wifi so it was really hard to move cash and cryptos around fast enough to really capitalise on that!

Hope you bought some at/near the bottom… or do you think it will crash again and harder?

Reply

3 ElleNo Gravatar February 13, 2018 at 4:41 pm

Speaking of ICO’s… I’ve had an interesting experience lately.

There are people in my network who are trying to start ICO’s as a get rich quick schemes. Wanting to raise funding, collect cash, and then run away.

There are definitely people laughing to the bank with their ICO gains, but there are also lots of people scamming and being scammed.

Be careful out there!

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