Electric Vehicle Revolution – Slowly but Surely

by FI Fighter on July 6, 2018

in Clean Energy

I first started becoming very bullish on electric vehicles in 2013 after I spotted a Tesla Model 3; I saw this interesting looking car (I didn’t know what the hell it was) that caught my eye in the parking lot at the company office. Not long after, I said, “holy fack this thing is awesome… and the future!” In many ways, what I observed back then already had the look and feel of something earth-shattering, which was very reminiscent to what I was witnessing first-hand with the smartphone revolution.

Of course, being young and green (no pun intended) back in the day, I totally missed out on speculating in the smartphone space, and well, I never really was able to capitalize or make any significant $$$ off of that wonderful window of opportunity that opened itself up due to the nature of hyperbolic growth/adoption… I do recall some FAT CAT directors in my company having bet the farm on stocks like Apple (AAPL), convinced the iPhone would take over the world, and well, if they held their shares to this day, they’re probably up a few million dollars… at least.

Wanting to be early on the next big thing, I guess you could say 2013 was when I subconsciously became a speculator (mama look at me now!)… I remember putting in what back then felt like a HUGE sum of money into Tesla (TSLA) stock, right before an earning’s release. Despite all the growing hype and hoopla over this new car company, I had no way of knowing the stock could run up from $50/share to… what it is currently sitting at today…

I made some decent gains, but hot damn, don’t I wish I held on for just a bit longer?

Anyway, fast-forward to today, and well, I’m still seeing a ton of opportunity for speculators who want to take a gamble on what is still what I (and many others like me) consider “the next big thing.” However, this time around, instead of betting on an individual car company succeeding (which in hindsight was a MASSIVE gamble), I deep-down feel like it would now be so much easier just betting on the commodities space, instead, since you don’t have to pick and choose so carefully… In other words, since I really feel like I have no earthly idea who will win the race and become the next Apple, Samsung, etc., I’m just gonna go with the supply chain, instead… The strategy is to target after the best: lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper mining companies that will be feeding into the lithium-ion hyper-growth story, which to my knowledge will be essential for powering these electric vehicles for the foreseeable future.

Nothing is guaranteed, of course, but through my research, I really don’t see anything on the horizon that will take the place and overtake lithium-ion batteries anytime soon…

So, that’s where we are at today, and as readers may recall, I’ve been rambling on and on about clean energy mining stocks since the spring/summer of 2016.

Granted, when it comes to the commodities sector, these mining stocks are volatile as ffff, but I mean, I guess you just have to adapt to the Rules of the Game, if you want to play, and learn to deal with it…

Sure, like anyone else, sometimes the insane volatility in the share price of these stocks drives me crazy and I wish they would just chill out and stabilize, sometimes, but for me this is just a good reminder why it’s so important to take a step back a lot of the times, and focus more on the MACRO TREND.

Electric vehicles are just starting to hit their stride, and my instincts are telling me we aren’t really even in the 1st inning yet…

Sounds crazy, perhaps, since I’ve been fixated on the idea of electric vehicles taking over the world since 2013… I mean, it’s been over 5 years for crying out loud! But that’s just how technology works, sometimes… It takes what feels like an eternity to gain traction, and then BAMMMMMM, next thing you know, it’s tipping point, and shortly after that, probably even my mom and grandma will be driving a fully electric vehicle…

Well, maybe not, but when mass adoption occurs, it’s absolutely breathtaking how quickly things can change…

Screen-Shot-2014-04-07-at-7.55.13-AM

So, I’m trying my best not to sweat the technique… and just let this most fascinating story play itself out… I take a lot of solace in knowing MEGA-BEHEMOTH companies (CATL, LG Chem, Samsung, Panasonic, etc.) are betting billions of dollars on this movement, and many governments are even going “all in”, putting plans in place to eventually phase out archaic Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles…

Really, can you possibly envision a future where the young bucks of today/tomorrow are gonna wanna drive ICE cars when they get their driver’s license? That’s like them picking up a brick Nokia black and white phone and trying to look cool to their peers… Shoot, once they perfect autonomous driving, future generations won’t even need a driver’s license at all! And ain’t no autonomous vehicles of the future going to be designed around ICE technology; autonomous vehicles go hand-in-hand with fully electric ones. Going the way of ICE would be like me installing a wi-fi card onto my old Polaroid film camera… WTF would be the point in doing that?

Anyway…

When I look around me, I’m seeing very exciting developments all across town. I remember back in 2013 when spotting a Tesla Model S was perhaps a bi-weekly occurrence (outside of the one sitting in the company parking lot, of course)… and then around 2014/2015, spotting a Tesla became much easier to do… These days, I can make a 10 minute drive to pick up lunch/coffee, and I’ll likely run into 5-6 Teslas… Not just Model S, anymore, but a few of the Model X and especially the Model 3.

Times are changing…

No, we’re nowhere near tipping point yet, but if I had to venture a guess, I’d say we are entering the iPhone 1 stage of the game…

Next up, the iPhone 3G!

And then, hopefully some kind of Samsung Galaxy/Android contender answers the bell to take on the Model 3…

Perhaps we’ve got a few Blackberry-like electric vehicles out there already, but really, it’s the Model 3 that’s leading the charge right now, from what I can see.

For speculators, I know it can be uber frustrating at times, especially when the macro picture is looking so damn promising (exponentially growing demand for clean energy metals yet precipitously declining share prices in these associated mining stocks) but as usual, it’s a tricky game, one where very few people will probably be successful in making good money at…

Hey, if it was easy, everyone would be filthy rich, right?

The market likes to throw a lot of curveballs at us, never forget that…

But yeah, take a step back and you should be able to see CLEARLY, we’ve still got a ways to go before we even enter the Early Majority phase!

Today, are global electric vehicle sales even at 1% yet?

Why freak out so early!?!

So, yeah, again, I’m just gotta try my best to tune out the noise and focus on the macro picture…

Back in 2013, when I used to get super excited after spotting a Model S, I would share with my friends, and their reply was:

Dude, electric vehicles will never take off. Spotting a Model S is like looking for a unicorn.

Now, in 2018, when I still get super excited about coming across Teslas, these same people will respond with:

Dude, electric vehicles are nothing special. Teslas are everywhere now.

I can’t wait for the day when I’m yet again super excited to spot Teslas, or any other electric vehicle, and my friends will shout:

Dude, you’re annoying as fuck. Next thing we know, you’re gonna be jumping for joy when you spot a human being on the street.

 

I’ll never win… I’m damned if I do, regardless.

 

But should that last scenario play itself out and that glorious day eventually arrives, I’m hoping I’ll have a big smile on my face.

Not just because I’ll still be super excited to see electric vehicles everywhere on the road, but hopefully, I will have made out like a bandit this time around.

 

Like dem old FAT CAT directors who bet on AAPL and the iPhone…

 

We’ll see…

 

Fight On!

{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

1 JohnNo Gravatar July 6, 2018 at 12:20 pm

Jay, do you think more value is in the final finished products vs the supply chain? Looking at Apple stock compared to the chip makers makes we wonder if it’s the wrong stock to speculate on?

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2 TawcanNo Gravatar July 6, 2018 at 3:23 pm

Glad to see more posts from you lately Jay. I guess we’ll have to continue to wait and see what happens with these mining stocks. Like John commented above, I do start to wonder if it makes more sense to invest in the finished products rather than the supply chain.

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3 FI FighterNo Gravatar July 6, 2018 at 4:53 pm

Bob,

Thanks for stopping by Bob! In regards to investments, yeah no one knows for certain what sector will benefit and win out in the end, but with commodities it almost always feels like a terrible idea at market bottoms… When these stocks fly, people then reverse tune and say they wish they bought more and can’t believe how high these mining stocks are flying…

I saw this happening in 2016, 2017… we’ll see what H2 2018 brings.

Buy low and sell high is all I can really say about that…

All the best!

Reply

4 Evan @ MyJourneytoMillionsNo Gravatar July 19, 2018 at 8:02 am

My father bought the Model S and it is a cool freaking car! I think what I like about it is that it is a computer surrounded by a car, rather than a car with a shitty on board computer. Although, I have to tell you range anxiety is f’n real!

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